Lilian Marmousez vs Carl Emil Overbeck Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In second serve performance over the last six months, Marmousez and Overbeck are nearly identical, with Marmousez winning 44.31% of points and Overbeck edging slightly ahead at 44.35%. Could this slight edge impact the outcome?
• When analyzing return game stats, Overbeck demonstrates superior ability, winning 52.49% of opponents' second serve points compared to Marmousez's 42.34%. This trend continues with first serve returns where Overbeck wins 34.05% compared to Marmousez's 26.98%.
• In high-stakes scenarios, Marmousez has saved 53.45% of breakpoints, outperforming Overbeck, who has saved 50.6%.
• Over the past year, Marmousez has a match win percentage of 69.49%, slightly lower than Overbeck's 72.73%. Does this give Overbeck an overall advantage?
• The clay surface appears to be favorable for both players, yet Overbeck boasts a higher career win percentage of 69% compared to Marmousez's 64%.
• At the ITF $10K tournament level, Overbeck holds an edge with an 80% win rate, surpassing Marmousez's 71.43%.
• Historically, in head-to-head encounters, Marmousez has prevailed, winning their sole meeting decisively in two straight sets.
• Regarding opponent quality over the last 12 months, Marmousez has faced stronger opponents, with an average opponent rank of 169.83 compared to Overbeck's 336.59.
• In the event of a deciding set, Overbeck has a slight advantage, having won 57% of such matches recently, compared to Marmousez's 46%.
• Notably, when it comes to breakpoint conversion, Overbeck is more efficient, converting 40.68% of their chances against Marmousez's 25.66%.

Editorial Prediction (July 4, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing their recent stats, it's clear that Marmousez and Overbeck each exhibit strengths in different areas. Overbeck demonstrates a stronger return game and better breakpoint conversion, essential metrics that often swing matches in one's favor.

While Marmousez has a previous head-to-head victory, this match will greatly depend on whether he can maintain effective defense, especially since Overbeck has shown strength in playing against second serves and in deciding sets.

Given the current statistics and performance trends, Overbeck seems to have a slight edge in this upcoming match. Unless Marmousez can leverage his previous experience and adjust his game to counter Overbeck's strengths, Overbeck is the likely winner.